Two prime time games to close out Week 4, a Sunday Night Football shootout in Carolina and a Monday Night NFC South showdown in New Orleans. Here are our picks for both.
Odds via bet365. Lines move fast on game day so double check the app before you actually fire anything in.
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Sunday Night Football: Lions at Panthers
The Panthers haven’t played on Sunday Night Football in 10 years, and they’re showing up badly banged up. Both starting cornerbacks, Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, are on injured reserve, starting left guard Damien Lewis is out, tackle Ikem Ekwonu is on the PUP list, and receivers Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette are both hurting. Bryce Young leads the NFL with 939 passing yards, but he took a beating in the loss at Cleveland, 48 attempts for 291 yards, and is dealing with a lower-body issue. He practiced in full Wednesday and is expected to play.
Detroit is 2-1 after beating the Jets 31-24, and Jared Goff has eight touchdown passes without an interception this season. The Lions have their own problems on defense. Safeties Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch are on the PUP list, and Detroit’s secondary has given up 898 passing yards, the most in the league. The Lions also haven’t covered a spread yet this season (0-2-1), and the over is 3-0 in their games.
Lions at Panthers: Lions -3.5, O/U 50.5
Our Pick: Lions 34, Panthers 27 (Lions -3.5, plus the over 50.5) This is the best matchup the Lions have had all year. Carolina is without both starting corners and will be asking a banged-up offensive line to protect Young, against a Goff offense that spreads the ball to eight different targets and hasn’t thrown a pick. The flip side is that Detroit’s defense is a sieve, and Young is going to keep throwing the ball, so we don’t expect Carolina to go quietly. That’s why we like the over too. Give us the Lions to cover in a high-scoring one.
Monday Night Football: Falcons at Saints
Two 1-2 teams in the NFC South, and the winner could sit alone atop the division through four weeks if Carolina loses on Sunday night. Atlanta is coming off a 35-14 win in Green Bay on Thursday night, with Michael Penix Jr. back under center (18-of-25, 256 yards, a touchdown and an interception), and they get the benefit of extra rest. The Falcons rank sixth in the league in pressure rate and first in PFF’s pass rush grade.
That’s a problem for New Orleans. The Saints rank 23rd in PFF pass blocking grade, and Tyler Shough has been sacked on 20% of his pressures through three weeks. Shough has been good otherwise, 917 passing yards, eight touchdowns and a 99.2 rating, including four touchdowns in the loss to Las Vegas. But the Saints are thin in the secondary after putting two cornerbacks, including Rejzohn Wright, on injured reserve, and they’ve lost tackle Banks (ankle surgery), running back Ty Chandler and tight end Moliki Matavao as well. New Orleans has covered eight of its last 10, which is the one thing working against us.
Falcons at Saints: Saints -2.5, O/U 48.5
Our Pick: Falcons 27, Saints 24 (Falcons moneyline) The Falcons rested up, they’re coming off their best game of the year, and their pass rush lines up against the weakest part of the Saints offense. Shough is a real threat, but he’s going to be under pressure all night behind a banged-up line, with a thin secondary on the other side of the ball. We’ll take the plus-money moneyline on Atlanta to win outright.
That’s the Week 4 prime time card. Couch Side Sports out. Let us know your locks.
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