Week 2 rolls on. Bills covered easily on Thursday in the new building, so let’s see if we can keep the momentum going through the Sunday card. Excludes the 4:05/4:25 afternoon window (its own post), Colts-Chiefs (Sunday Night) and Giants-Rams (Monday Night), those get their own Prime Time Pick post.
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Early Window (1:00 PM ET)
Panthers at Falcons — Panthers -2.5, O/U 43.5 Our Pick: Panthers 24, Falcons 20 (Panthers -2.5) Carolina’s offense looked legit against Chicago in Week 1, and we’re not ready to judge that defense too harshly off one game against what should be one of the better offenses in the league this year in Ben Johnson’s second season. Atlanta just doesn’t look the same with Cooper Rush under center. Bijan Robinson should still get a heavy workload and stay productive, but we don’t think it’s enough on its own this week. Give us the Panthers on the road.
Bengals at Texans — Texans -2.5, O/U 45.5 Our Pick: Bengals 24, Texans 21 (Bengals +2.5) Houston’s defense isn’t as healthy as that number suggests. Linebacker Henry To’oTo’o is already on IR, Jadeveon Clowney and Jake Hummel are both banged up, and Nico Collins is dealing with a hamstring issue on the other side of the ball. Cincinnati’s pass rush looked legit in Week 1, four sacks and a strip-sack touchdown against Baker Mayfield, and if that shows up again it’s a real problem for Stroud. Joe Burrow’s dealing with some back tightness of his own, worth watching before kickoff, but he says he’s playing. We like the Bengals to keep this one close and cover as the underdog.
Browns at Buccaneers — Buccaneers -8.5, O/U 41.5 Our Pick: Buccaneers 30, Browns 13 (Buccaneers -8.5) This one comes with a real storyline, Baker Mayfield facing the team that drafted him first overall back in 2018 before shipping him out to make room for Deshaun Watson. He’s reportedly had this game circled since August. On the field, Cleveland was an absolute mess in Week 1, down 31-0 just three minutes into the second half against Jacksonville, and Watson posted the league’s highest sack rate through the opening week. Tampa had its own issues with four lost fumbles, but they’re at home with real revenge motivation against a Browns team that looked completely overwhelmed. We like the Bucs to cover comfortably here.
Packers at Jets — Packers -3.5, O/U 44.5 Our Pick: Jets 23, Packers 20 (Jets +3.5) Green Bay’s injury report is ugly, Josh Jacobs, Luke Musgrave, Micah Parsons and Jordon Riley are all out, with five more players questionable including starting guard Aaron Banks. That’s on top of an offensive line that already got shredded for four sacks and two turnovers against Minnesota last week in a game they blew a 22-10 lead in. New York was clean in Week 1, no turnovers, no sacks allowed, and their pass rush still got to Cam Ward three times even though he’s far less experienced than Love. We like the Jets and the points here.
Vikings at Bears — Bears -4.5, O/U 47.5 Our Pick: Bears 31, Vikings 24 (Bears -4.5) Minnesota’s down to Carson Wentz for real this time, Kyler Murray’s unlikely to clear concussion protocol in time. Wentz did throw for three touchdowns in relief last week though, so it’s not a total disaster at the position. Bigger issue for the Vikings is their own defense, Blake Cashman, Andrew Van Ginkel and Brian O’Neill are all banged up, and that unit has to slow down a Bears offense that just hung 59 points on Carolina. Chicago’s defense is the soft spot here, they gave up 361 passing yards to Bryce Young in Week 1, so expect points from both sides. We like the Bears at home.
Saints at Ravens — Ravens -8.5, O/U 45.5 Our Pick: Ravens 34, Saints 20 (Ravens -8.5) Baltimore’s defense already looks like a step up from what New Orleans saw last week, Jesse Minter’s group held Daniel Jones to just 5.4 yards per attempt in his coaching debut against the Colts. The Saints still have their own defensive issues after giving up 469 total yards and 165 on the ground to Detroit, and now they’re facing Derrick Henry after he looked unstoppable in the opener. Zay Flowers is trending toward missing this one with a hamstring issue, but with Henry and Jackson both rolling, that shouldn’t matter much against this Saints defense. Shough can sling it and this could stay competitive for stretches, but we like Baltimore’s talent gap to be enough for the cover.
Eagles at Titans — Eagles -7, O/U 39.5 Our Pick: Eagles 27, Titans 16 (Eagles -7) Tennessee’s offensive line got completely dominated by the Jets last week, one analyst said they made a backup Jets rusher look like a Pro Bowler, and the offense managed just 195 total yards. Philadelphia’s front, on the other hand, was excellent even without Jonathan Greenard, 19 pressures against Washington, a single-game best under DC Vic Fangio. The Eagles have their own injury questions, Jalen Carter and Cooper DeJean were both limited to start the week and starting guard Landon Dickerson is now on IR, but the gap up front is significant enough to matter regardless. We like the Eagles to cover on the road.
Steelers at Patriots — Patriots -5.5, O/U 41.5 Our Pick: Patriots 20, Steelers 17 (Patriots moneyline) Both defenses looked legit in Week 1, Pittsburgh graded as the top unit in the league by DVOA and EPA after shutting down Atlanta, and New England held Seattle to just one touchdown. The concern for the Patriots is Drake Maye’s three fourth-quarter interceptions, and now he’s without A.J. Brown, who’s out with an ankle injury. Working in New England’s favor here though, they’ve had an extra-long week to get right after opening the season on a Wednesday against Seattle, giving them more rest and prep time than almost anyone else in the league heading into Week 2. We like that extra time to matter enough to get the Patriots a win at home.
Our Best Bet of the Morning Slate: Eagles -7 over the Titans. The offensive line mismatch feels like the most predictable outcome on the board today.
That’s the morning card. Afternoon window, plus our Prime Time Pick for Colts-Chiefs and Giants-Rams, coming in separate posts. Couch Side Sports out. Let us know your locks.
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