Week 3 was not kind to us. We went 4-8-1 on the Sunday card (Sunday Night and Monday Night not counted), and the season record took its first real hit. Here’s every pick, how it landed, and what went wrong.
Early Window: 3-6
- Chargers +7 → LOSS (Bills 24, Chargers 16). Missed by a single point. Buffalo turned it over five times and took ten penalties and still found a way, with James Cook running for 154 yards and putting it away in the fourth quarter.
- Panthers ML → LOSS (Browns 21, Panthers 18). Cleveland’s pass rush got to Bryce Young all afternoon, and Deshaun Watson led another late touchdown drive. That’s two weeks in a row now.
- Lions ML → WIN (Lions 31, Jets 24). Jahmyr Gibbs scored three second-half touchdowns, including the game-winner, after Detroit let a 14-0 lead turn into a tie game. The defense still isn’t fixed, but the offense covers a lot.
- Texans -1.5 (Best Bet) → LOSS (Colts 19, Texans 17). This one hurts. The “worst defense in the league” held Houston to 223 total yards, and Spencer Shrader hit a 53-yard field goal late to win it. Our Best Bet of the window, gone on a kick.
- Chiefs ML → WIN (Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10). Mahomes went 20-of-24 for 246 yards and two scores, and Kenneth Walker III found the end zone twice. Miami hung around a lot longer than the 10.5-point line suggested, but Kansas City got it done.
- Titans ML → LOSS (Giants 12, Titans 7). The Giants didn’t score a touchdown and still won on four Dominic Zvada field goals. Cam Ward’s interception from the 7-yard line on the final drive ended it.
- Bengals ML → LOSS (Steelers 30, Bengals 27). The Pittsburgh offense we called dead last showed up. Aaron Rodgers threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns, special teams mistakes cost Cincinnati ten points, and Derrick Harmon’s strip-sack of Joe Burrow in the final two minutes sealed it.
- Seahawks -7.5 → LOSS (Commanders 33, Seahawks 31). Seattle outgained Washington 437 to 258 and Sam Darnold came back with 379 yards and four touchdowns, but three turnovers and a pick-six from Kain Medrano did them in. Marcus Mariota threw three touchdowns and no interceptions for the upset.
- Jaguars -3 → WIN (Jaguars 35, Patriots 6). Never close. Trevor Lawrence threw three touchdowns, Travis Hunter got his first career interception, and Drake Maye had two picks and a fumble before getting pulled late for Tommy DeVito.
Late Window: 1-2-1
- 49ers -8.5 (Best Bet) → LOSS (49ers 36, Cardinals 30). San Francisco won, but by six, not nine. Arizona made it a lot closer than we expected.
- Vikings -2.5 → WIN (Vikings 23, Buccaneers 16). Minnesota moves to 3-0 and Tampa Bay drops to 0-3, with Baker Mayfield dislocating his thumb in the loss.
- Ravens -3 → PUSH (Ravens 34, Cowboys 31). Baltimore trailed by double digits in Rio de Janeiro before a walk-off finish, and won by exactly three. The over 52.5 add-on did cash with 65 total points.
- Saints -3 → LOSS (Raiders 35, Saints 27). Kirk Cousins threw three touchdowns and Las Vegas rallied from a double-digit deficit to move to 3-0.
Week 3 Total: 4-8-1
Season Total: 23-16-1
- Week 1: 11-2
- Week 2: 8-6
- Week 3: 4-8-1
What went wrong
All eight of our losses came in games decided by eight points or fewer, and four of them (Panthers, Texans, Bengals, Seahawks) were decided by three or fewer. Both Best Bets lost. We also leaned hard on the stat rankings this week, worst defense in the league, worst offense in the league, and both of those teams flipped the script the moment we trusted the numbers.
Zooming out
Before anyone calls us fools, let’s look at the actual numbers. We’re sitting at 23-16-1 on the season, which is 59% on decided picks. The break-even number on standard spread bets at -110 is about 52.4%, so we’re still ahead of that.
The last two weeks have been rough, 12-14-1 (46%), but that’s 27 picks, which is a tiny sample. NFL spreads are close to coin flips, and Week 1’s 11-2 was just as much noise in the other direction as these last two weeks have been in this one. A 59% record over 40 picks is probably higher than anyone can sustain, so expect us to drift toward the middle. We’re regressing, not horrendous.
If anything we need to adjust our Best Bets. They have been bad through 3 weeks this year, watch for some easy guarentee’s next week. And if you’re smart about it you might just want to bet against our Best Bets until we prove ourselves.
Keep your eyes peeled for a 3 way parlay for Monday Night Football between the Bears & Eagles. We’ll have a separate post coming out for that.
Another fun side note, we will be moving our recording days from Saturday nights to Tuesday nights for the Podcast. This change will take affect this week, and our hope is to recap the week gone by in a timely manner, and have a preview of the upcoming week where we can talk about TNF. Keep your eyes peeled here on the website or on Spotify for episode #31.
We own the bad weeks too. On to Week 4.
Couch Side Sports out. Let us know your locks.
Leave a Reply