Week 4 is here, and we’re sitting at 23-16-1 on the season after a rough Week 3. Time to find our footing. This covers the 1:00 PM ET window. The late slate gets its own post, and Colts-Commanders (already underway in London), Lions-Panthers (Sunday Night) and Falcons-Saints (Monday Night) are not part of this one.
Odds via bet365. Lines move fast on game day so double check the app before you actually fire anything in.
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Early Window (1:00 PM ET)
Patriots at Bills: Bills -7, O/U 48.5 Our Pick: Bills 31, Patriots 13 (Bills moneyline) This one is going to be all Buffalo. Another home game for the Bills in the new Highmark Stadium, and Josh Allen and company should be back to normal after a clunker of a first half against the Chargers last week. Even in that mess, five turnovers and ten penalties, they still won 24-16 behind James Cook’s 154 yards on the ground. New England has not shown us anything to suggest a bounce back is coming. Drake Maye has one touchdown pass, six interceptions and has been sacked nine times through three games, and the Patriots offensive line has really struggled to start the year, which showed up in the 35-6 loss in Jacksonville. The price on the Bills moneyline is steep, but we’re comfortable laying it.
Jets at Bears: Bears -3, O/U 42.5 Our Pick: Bears 24, Jets 17 (Bears -3) Caleb Williams has been officially ruled out with the hamstring injury, and Tyson Bagent is expected to get the start at home. Not ideal, but Chicago just showed us the offense can function without Williams, 24 first downs and nearly 37 minutes of possession in the 27-7 win over the Eagles with Case Keenum under center. The bigger story is the Bears’ defense, which held Philadelphia to seven points and forced three turnovers. That’s bad news for a Jets offense that keeps getting its quarterback hit. Geno Smith has been sacked nine times through three games, including five in the loss to Detroit, where he was sacked and stripped on the final drive. Chicago should be able to bring the same kind of pressure it brought against Jalen Hurts. Give us the Bears to cover.
Jaguars at Bengals: Bengals -2.5, O/U 51.5 Our Pick: Jaguars 31, Bengals 27 (Jaguars moneyline) This one is a genuine toss-up, but the recent trends lean Jacksonville. The Jaguars are 10-2 over their last 12 games, 4-1 on the road over their last five, and 4-1 against teams with a winning record over that same stretch. They’re also 7-2 after a win over their last nine, and they’re coming off a 35-6 rout of New England. Cincinnati is on the other side of those numbers. The Bengals are 3-7 after a loss over their last 10, 2-5 at home over their last seven, and 1-4 against teams with a winning record over their last five, and they’re coming off the 30-27 loss to Pittsburgh. Trevor Lawrence has looked great early in the year, and with the highest total on the board at 51.5, he’s the kind of quarterback who can win a shootout. Give us the Jaguars on the moneyline.
Cardinals at Giants: Cardinals -2.5, O/U 44.5 Our Pick: Cardinals 24, Giants 13 (Cardinals -2.5) We like the Cardinals offense so far this year, and nothing we’ve seen suggests Jameis Winston is the Jameis Winston of old. He went 11-of-27 for 111 yards and an interception in relief against the Rams, and the Giants didn’t score a single touchdown in last week’s 12-7 win over the Titans, four field goals and that was it. Arizona just put 30 points on a very good 49ers team, and Jacoby Brissett has Trey McBride to lean on, who went for 95 yards and a touchdown back in Week 1. We’re expecting a big day from McBride against a Giants team that’s been starved for offense. Give us the Cardinals to cover.
Rams at Eagles: Rams -3.5, O/U 46.5 Our Pick: Rams 27, Eagles 20 (Rams -3.5) The Eagles have been frustrating to watch this season, and they never really got going against the Bears on Monday night, scoring just seven points in a 27-7 loss. Meanwhile the Rams are due for a bounce back after blowing a 16-0 halftime lead in Denver and losing 30-26 on Bo Nix’s sneak with 47 seconds left. That game came without Puka Nacua, who returns today, and per ESPN’s Adam Schefter the Rams don’t plan to limit his workload against Philadelphia. Matthew Stafford threw for 390 yards in that loss, Davante Adams went for 137, and Kyren Williams ran for 88 on 15 carries, so the offense has been moving the ball. Add Nacua back to the mix and we like Los Angeles to cover on the road.
Packers at Buccaneers: Packers -3, O/U 38.5 Our Pick: Packers 20, Buccaneers 10 (Packers moneyline) + Under 38.5 Nothing we’ve seen this year says the Buccaneers are any good. They’re 0-3 for the first time since 2014, the offense has managed two touchdowns, then one, then 16 points against Minnesota, and now Baker Mayfield is out with the thumb injury. That means undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels makes his first career start, after going 0-for-3 with an interception in relief last week. The Packers have their own problems, the 35-14 loss to Atlanta last Thursday and an offensive line that has let Jordan Love take a beating, so we’re staying off the spread. We’ll take Green Bay on the moneyline and smash the under, which has moved to 38.5. Two shaky offensive lines and a rookie quarterback is a recipe for a low-scoring game.
Titans at Ravens: Ravens -11.5, O/U 43.5 Our Pick: Ravens 24, Titans 14 (Ravens moneyline) We like the Ravens to win this one, and ESPN’s Ian Rapoport has Zay Flowers expected to play today with a full workload after he was limited in Rio. Lamar Jackson looked sharp against Dallas, 186 yards and two touchdowns through the air plus 50 on the ground, and he gets his top target back at full speed. Tennessee is 0-3 and has scored just 37 points in three games. Still, we’re staying away from this spread. Eleven and a half points is a lot, anything can happen in the NFL, and the Titans defense has kept games close, hanging in against Philadelphia until the final drive. Baltimore already lost outright to the Saints in Week 2 as an 8.5-point favorite, so we won’t assume a blowout. The moneyline price is heavy, but we expect the Ravens to get the win.
Cowboys at Texans: Texans -2.5, O/U 47.5 Our Pick: Cowboys 30, Texans 27 (Cowboys moneyline) Give us the Cowboys in the Texas Bowl. Dak Prescott has been playing at an MVP level, and with CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens and Javonte Williams around him, this offense can score on anybody. The Cowboys defense has been a problem, giving up 27.3 points per game, but the Texans haven’t been able to take advantage. They’re 0-3, they scored just 6 against Cincinnati and 17 against Indianapolis, and Nico Collins has missed both of those games with a hamstring strain, so his status is worth watching. We’ll take the plus-money moneyline on Dallas to get the win in Houston.
Our Best Bet of the Early Slate: Packers over the Buccaneers and the under 38.5. Tampa Bay is 0-3 and handing the offense to an undrafted rookie making his first career start, and both offensive lines have been a mess. Hard to see this one turning into a shootout.
That’s the early slate. Late slate coming in its own post. Couch Side Sports out. Let us know your locks.
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