Early slate’s posted. Here’s the 4:05 and 4:25 window to close out the Sunday afternoon card. Lions-Panthers (Sunday Night) and Falcons-Saints (Monday Night) are not part of this one.
Odds via bet365. Lines move fast on game day so double check the app before you actually fire anything in.
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Late Window (4:05 / 4:25 PM ET)
Dolphins at Vikings: Vikings -10, O/U 38.5 Our Pick: Vikings 24, Dolphins 10 (Vikings -10, plus the under 38.5) Minnesota’s defense is the story here, allowing a league-low 1.11 points per drive, and Miami has very little that should scare it. Malik Willis ranks 33rd in the league in passing points per attempt and hasn’t thrown a touchdown when pressured, and the Dolphins are 0-3 with losses by 14, 22 and 14 points. Kyler Murray hasn’t been sharp himself (51.7% completions last week), and Justin Jefferson is nursing an ankle sprain and looks like a game-time call, but Jordan Addison saw nine targets without him in Tampa. Ten points is a big number, but we expect the Vikings to play to their strengths: a lead, a clock and a defense that smothers. The under has also cashed in eight of Minnesota’s last 10, so we’re adding the under 38.5.
Chiefs at Raiders: Chiefs -4.5, O/U 48.5 Our Pick: Chiefs 27, Raiders 24 (Raiders +4.5) The only matchup of unbeaten teams this week, and we think it’s tighter than 4.5. Kirk Cousins leads the NFL with nine touchdown passes, and each of the Raiders’ first three games has come down to one or two possessions under first-year coach Klint Kubiak. Kansas City is the better team on paper. Kenneth Walker III leads the league with 360 rushing yards and Mahomes was 20-of-24 at Miami, but the Chiefs are 4-8-1 against the spread as road favorites in division games since 2021. Chiefs get the win, Raiders get the cover. We’re taking Las Vegas and the points at home.
Broncos at 49ers: 49ers -2.5, O/U 46.5 Our Pick: 49ers 31, Broncos 20 (49ers -2.5) San Francisco has the best offense in the league right now, an NFL-best 7.35 yards per play, and Brock Purdy has nine touchdown passes against one interception without being sacked once all season. Denver’s defense has allowed 431 rushing yards at 5.1 a carry, and Bo Nix has been pressured on more than 42% of his dropbacks. The concern is on the other side of the ball. Nick Bosa is out again with a calf strain, Mike Evans is a question mark, and the pass rush has struggled without Bosa, though San Francisco did add Matthew Judon this week. Denver is coming off a big comeback win over the Rams and Nix has been improving, but we trust the better offense at home. Give us the 49ers to cover.
Chargers at Seahawks: Seahawks -6.5, O/U 43.5 Our Pick: Seahawks 27, Chargers 13 (Seahawks -6.5) The Chargers are 0-3, they’ve scored just 44 points in three games, and Justin Herbert has thrown three touchdowns against four interceptions with a 73.4 passer rating. The offensive line is falling apart too, with Trey Pipkins and Tyler Biadasz both on injured reserve, and the Chargers lead the league in false start penalties with 10. Seattle’s defense leads the NFL in yards per play allowed, and Sam Darnold threw for 379 yards and four touchdowns last week even in a loss to Washington. The Seahawks lost as 8.5-point favorites in that game and we expect a response at home. We’ll lay the points.
Our Best Bet of the Late Slate: Seahawks -6.5 over the Chargers. An 0-3 team with a broken offensive line and a quarterback who can’t get right, walking into one of the best defenses in the league.
That’s the full Sunday card. Couch Side Sports out. Let us know your locks.
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