Week 4 started a lot better than Week 3 ended. The early slate was one of the most exciting in recent memory, with the Rams, Cowboys and Patriots all pulling off late comebacks, and we went 7-2. The late slate went 4-1, so we finished the Sunday card 11-3. Our prime time picks (Lions-Panthers and Falcons-Saints) get their own recap. Here’s every Sunday pick.
Early Window: 7-2
- Bears -3 → WIN (Bears 23, Jets 12). Chicago won without Caleb Williams again and held the Jets to 12 points. Bears move to 3-1.
- Jaguars ML → WIN (Jaguars 22, Bengals 17). Trevor Lawrence finally beat Cincinnati for the first time in his career, and Ja’Marr Chase left the game for the Bengals.
- Bills ML → LOSS (Patriots 29, Bills 26). The upset of the day, and our most expensive loss. Drake Maye threw three touchdown passes, including Efton Chism’s one-handed catch with 1:50 left, after Buffalo led 17-7 at the half. The moneyline was priced around -310, so that one hurt.
- Cardinals -2.5 → LOSS (Giants 36, Cardinals 24). Arizona jumped out to a 14-6 lead and then fell apart. The Giants scored their first touchdown in more than 10 quarters on a Malachi Fields catch late in the second quarter, then outscored the Cardinals 30-10 the rest of the way.
- Rams -3.5 → WIN (Rams 24, Eagles 20). Los Angeles pulled out a last-minute comeback in Philadelphia and covered by half a point. The Eagles have now lost two straight.
- Packers ML → WIN (Packers 17, Buccaneers 14). Our Best Bet of the early slate. Tampa Bay falls to 0-4.
- Packers/Buccaneers under 38.5 → WIN (31 total points). Two shaky offensive lines and a rookie quarterback made for exactly the low-scoring game we expected.
- Ravens ML → WIN (Ravens 24, Titans 18). The Ravens won but only by six, nowhere near the 11.5-point spread, so staying off the number paid off.
- Cowboys ML → WIN (Cowboys 34, Texans 30). Javonte Williams scored three touchdowns and Dallas put up 28 points in the second half to win in Houston at plus money. The Texans are 0-4 after their defense gave up another late score.
Late Window: 4-1
- Vikings -10 → LOSS (Vikings 15, Dolphins 10). Minnesota won, but five field goals only got them a five-point win, nowhere near the number. Miami lost running back De’Von Achane for the season and still hung around.
- Vikings/Dolphins under 38.5 → WIN (25 total points). The defense-first game script we expected showed up, even if the spread didn’t.
- Raiders +4.5 → WIN (Chiefs 30, Raiders 27). We had Kansas City winning 27-24, so the score wasn’t far off. Las Vegas scored late and converted a two-point try to make it 30-27 with 1:46 left, but Kansas City recovered the onside attempt to seal it. Tyquan Thornton was carted off with a lower-leg injury for the Chiefs.
- 49ers -2.5 → WIN (49ers 24, Broncos 14). San Francisco improved to 4-0 even though all three of its touchdowns came in the second half. Brock Purdy went 19-of-30 for 218 yards and two scores, and Denver’s Wil Lutz missed a 58-yard field goal with 1:18 left. Bo Nix finished 25-of-42 for 214 yards.
- Seahawks -6.5 (Best Bet) → WIN (Seahawks 30, Chargers 23). Seattle jumped out to a 20-3 lead and was up by 21 in the third quarter before the Chargers made it interesting. Seattle won by seven and covered by half a point, so our late slate Best Bet cashed.
Sunday Total: 11-3
Season Total: 34-19-1
- Week 1: 11-2
- Week 2: 8-6
- Week 3: 4-8-1
- Week 4 (Sunday): 11-3
What worked
A big bounce back after the 4-8-1 in Week 3, and both Best Bets cashed this time, the Packers (with the under) in the early slate and the Seahawks in the late slate. We lost three on the day: the Bills moneyline, the Cardinals, and the Vikings -10, who won the game but couldn’t cover a double-digit number (the under still hit). Staying off the big spread on the Ravens worked out, but the Vikings were a reminder that 10 points is hard to cover even when you pick the right team.
Zooming out
We’re at 34-19-1 on the season, about 64% on decided picks, comfortably above the 52.4% break-even for standard -110 spread bets. As we said last week, small samples swing in both directions, so we’re not reading too much into Week 3’s dip or this bounce back. On to the prime time recap.
Couch Side Sports out. Let us know your locks.
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