Week 5 Locks & Losses: Early Slate

Odds via bet365. Lines move fast on game day so double check the app before you actually fire anything in.
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Early Window (1:00 PM ET)

Bears at Packers: Bears -1.5 (CHI -122 / GB +102), O/U 46.5
Our Pick: Bears 27, Packers 20 (Bears moneyline)

This is the first time in 20 years the Bears are favored at Lambeau Field, and we think they’ve earned it. Tyson Bagent was solid in the win over the Jets with Caleb Williams out again, and he has real weapons to work with, Rome Odunze has 14 catches for 233 yards already. Chicago is 3-1 against the spread this season while the Packers are 0-3-1, and Green Bay is running the ball badly with Josh Jacobs on the commissioner’s exempt list. Jordan Love has historically had success against this Bears defense, so we’re staying off the spread and just taking Chicago to win outright.

Bengals at Dolphins: Bengals -7 (CIN -345 / MIA +275), O/U 43.5
Our Pick: Bengals 27, Dolphins 13 (Bengals moneyline)

Cincinnati has lost two straight, but it was a good offense in both games, Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards in the loss to Jacksonville and is completing 71.3% of his passes. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are both expected to play, and Chase has cleared the concussion protocol. Miami is dead last in scoring, 13 points or fewer in every game with just four offensive touchdowns all year, and De’Von Achane is out for the season with a torn ACL. Malik Willis has been one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. The price on the moneyline is steep and a touchdown is a big number to lay, so we’re taking the Bengals to win and staying off the spread.

Browns at Jets: Jets -2.5 (CLE +115 / NYJ -135), O/U 39.5
Our Pick: Browns 20, Jets 17 (Browns moneyline)

The Browns are 3-1 under first-year coach Todd Monken, and the market still has them as underdogs to a 1-3 Jets team, with the line moving toward New York even though about 82% of the public spread tickets are on Cleveland. We’ll take the plus money. Deshaun Watson has 855 yards and six touchdowns with a 118.3 fourth-quarter passer rating, and Cleveland has won three straight games by one score each. Heavy rain is in the forecast, which usually shrinks a game and keeps it close, and Cleveland has been very good in close games. The penalties (a league-high 43) are a concern and the Jets have been competitive in their losses, so we’re not laying points either way. Give us the Browns on the moneyline.

Texans at Titans: Texans -7.5 (HOU -390 / TEN +310), O/U 37.5
Our Pick: Texans 20, Titans 16 (Titans +7.5)

Somebody has to get a first win here, and we’re not sure Houston is the team that should be laying a touchdown on the road. The Texans are 0-4 against the spread, and their offensive line has allowed 12 sacks in four games, one of the highest totals in the league. Tennessee’s line has allowed only six, tied for sixth fewest. Stroud threw for 347 yards against Dallas and Nico Collins is back, so Houston should score, but this is a home divisional underdog getting more than a touchdown in a game with a total under 40, and that’s a spot for the points. We like Houston to win a close one, but not by eight.

Colts at Steelers: Steelers -2.5 (IND +120 / PIT -142), O/U 44.5
Our Pick: Steelers 24, Colts 20 (Steelers moneyline)

The Colts come in off a trip to London for a morning kickoff, and the Steelers have had extra rest since their Thursday night loss to the Browns. That edge matters in a game this tight. Indianapolis has real problems on defense, giving up 392.3 yards a game, second most in the league, and ranking last in net yards per play. Alec Pierce is out, and Daniel Jones is 1-for-6 on deep throws with an interception. Jonathan Taylor can keep this close, and Indy has covered four straight road games, so we don’t love laying points, but we like Pittsburgh at home to win the game. Give us the Steelers on the moneyline.

Raiders at Patriots: Patriots -3.5 (LV +160 / NE -190), O/U 45.5
Our Pick: Patriots 24, Raiders 20 (Patriots moneyline)

The Patriots are home and just knocked off the Bills, and Drake Maye is coming off his best game of the season. Las Vegas is a good story at 3-1, but they’ve covered the number in every game so far and are coming off a loss to Kansas City, and they’re banged up, with Ashton Jeanty questionable and receiver Jalen Nailor and a starting offensive lineman out. New England’s offense has been one of the league’s worst and A.J. Brown is out, so this isn’t a comfortable pick. We still like the more disciplined team at home. Give us the Patriots on the moneyline.

Vikings at Saints: Vikings -2 (MIN -135 / NO +115), O/U 41.5
Our Pick: Saints 20, Vikings 17 (Saints moneyline)

The Vikings are 4-0, but the offense hasn’t been pretty. They failed to score a touchdown in two of those wins, and now their offensive line is a mess, with Brian O’Neill questionable, Christian Darrisaw likely out and Donovan Jackson on injured reserve. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are both questionable too, and Kyler Murray has looked uncomfortable running this offense. Tyler Shough, meanwhile, is third in the league in passing yards and has been good against extra pressure, and New Orleans is 8-2 against the spread in its last 10. The Saints lost badly to the Falcons on Monday night and the run game is almost non-existent, but we like them at home at plus money. Give us the Saints on the moneyline.

Giants at Commanders: Commanders -4.5 (NYG +165 / WSH -192), O/U 41.5
Our Pick: Commanders 27, Giants 23 (Commanders moneyline)

Jayden Daniels is back from the dislocated elbow, and the Giants are 0-3 against the Commanders with him under center. Washington is thin at receiver, with Stefon Diggs out and Terry McLaurin questionable, and the defense is allowing 30.5 points a game, so we’re not laying the points. But Jameis Winston threw two interceptions against Arizona last week, and we trust Daniels to be the difference at home. The Giants are 3-1 against the spread and healthier than they’ve been, so we expect a close one. Give us the Commanders on the moneyline.

Our Best Bet of the Early Slate: Bengals moneyline over the Dolphins. Miami has scored 13 points or fewer in every game this season, De’Von Achane is out for the year, and Joe Burrow has Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins back. The price is steep, but this is the most likely winner on the board.
That’s the early slate. Late slate coming in its own post. Couch Side Sports out. Let us know your locks.